135’s Head Analyst, Nick Scott, speaking to coaches at John McEnroe Tennis Academy, September, 2025

THE PROBLEM WITH “BIG” TENNIS DATA; CONFUSING MESSAGES, LAZY METRICS

In today’s game, tennis players are being bombarded with what we call “big data”. Broad stats are everywhere – on the screen, in the app, on the wall! Yet, most of the messages being delivered to aspirational players – those truly trying to assist with improvement – are not just unhelpful, they’re confusing.

Two of the most common mantras in modern tennis analytics are:

  • “Tennis is 70% errors.”

  • “70% of points are over in 0–4 shots.”

Neither of these statements is technically wrong — but they are dangerously misleading.

Let’s take the first one.

“Tennis is 70% errors”

This phrase is often used to suggest that players should just “keep the ball in” and let opponents miss. But it clumps together unforced and forced errors as if they’re the same thing. They’re obviously not.

  • A lazy unforced error off the forehand into the net is not the same as being stretched wide to make an impossible passing shot off your boot laces.
  • A missed return on a second serve isn’t the same as a missed return off a 130mph bomb up the T to Deuce that catches the frame and flies over the fence.

By combining forced and unforced errors, the message becomes meaningless. Worse, it makes players overly cautious, tentative, and afraid to develop a proactive game style. It also ignores one crucial truth: errors are often the result of pressure — and pressure is created through patterns, not through an ability to “not miss”

“70% of points end in 0–4 shots”

This line gets repeated constantly – and again, while statistically defensible, it’s not insightful.

Grouping serve patterns (1–3–5) with return patterns (2–4–6), which is what 0-4 does, gives the impression that tennis is simply a first-strike sport. It misses context, like, on a percentage basis, the most common time to see a long rally in tennis is at 30-40. 

Grouped rally length is not the story. Rally pattern is.

What Players Actually Need: Patterns, Not Percentages

At 135 Tennis Intelligence, we decode rally patterns using the 135 Framework:

  • 135: Shot 1 (Serve), Shot 3 and Shot 5 ie. how you build and finish points as the server.

  • 246: Shot 2 (Return), Shot 4, and Shot 6 ie neutralizing and building to 7+ or aggressively trying to finish with 2-4-6 patterns.

  • 7+: Long rally construction – how players manage extended patterns and decision-making.

With these rally patterns, we’re able to profile how a player actually plays, benchmark their performance against others of the same level, and most importantly, measure improvement over time.

This gives coaches something real. It gives academies and colleges something they can track. It gives players confidence, because instead of generic slogans about errors and rally lengths, they’re working with a clear picture of their game.

Let’s Stop Sending Mixed Messages

Big data in tennis is trying to turn the game into data headlines. Players don’t need headlines. They need clarity, context, and a path forward.

Let’s stop confusing players with lazy metrics.

Let’s start educating them through patterns.

It’s time to shift the conversation — from errors and grouped rally lengths to profiles, benchmarks, and measurable improvement. Group the rallies by server and returner to help identify patterns. 

That’s what 135 Tennis Intelligence delivers. That’s what changes how tennis is understood, coached, and played.